- Poor start to Q4 sets economy up to miss 2019 onsensus on GDP.
A spokesman at the Office for National Statistics (ONS) comments on today's report: "The UK economy saw no growth in the latest three months".
ONS reports that construction output decreased by 2.3% in the month-on-month all work series in October 2019; this is the largest monthly fall since January 2018 when it fell by 2.6%; this was largely because of a 3.1% fall in new work, with fix and maintenance also decreasing by 0.6%. The British economy contracted by 0.2 percent in the second quarter and posted 0.3 percent growth in the third.
"What's more, retail sales will probably be a drag on GDP in November as this year the survey period excludes Black Friday (although that burst of activity will be captured in December's data)".
The GDP of the United Kingdom was also flat in the three months to October in comparison with the period from May to July. The economy also showed no change in monthly terms, the ONS said, weaker than a median forecast of 0.1% growth in the poll. Gross domestic product rose by 0.7% compared with October 2018, the weakest growth since March 2012, when Britain was still trying to shake off the effects of the global financial crisis.
President Donald Trump's trade war with China has badly wounded the global manufacturing sector and driven a broad slowdown in worldwide trade. Markets are now waiting to hear if on December 15, he will go ahead and impose tariffs on all of China's remaining annual exports to the U.S. That would deal the global economy another blow. "Brexit uncertainty has dampened business investment over the past couple of years and broader political uncertainty may have an impact on upcoming data releases". Prime Minister Boris Johnson has urged voters to back him because his Brexit deal would "unleash a great tide of investment" when it clears a now deadlocked parliament.
Currency markets favour a Conservative government.
Experts blamed Brexit, and said it might push the Bank of England to cut interest rates.